Thursday, October 30, 2008

If you can Stand reading The Other Side ... how a basketful of thoughtful conservatives are voting this time.

I came here because I saw Francis Fukuyama's name in a Memeorandum post.

http://www.amconmag.com/article/2008/nov/03/00020/

Then I began to click on the names below and it was truly an enlightening experience. There was quite a range of opinions expressed and the kind of concerns that many of us share in terms of going forward.

Sunday, October 19, 2008

NY Times defends itself ... the media has been taking major flak from both sides

Clark Hoyt - The Public Editor responds and clarifies that beauty and everything else is in the "I" of the beholder

Saturday, October 18, 2008

Pothead Hedge Funder: ‘Throw Away the Blackberry and Enjoy Life’

Andrew Lahde, the head of Santa Monica–based hedge fund Lahde Capital Management, who quit after posting an 870 percent gain last year, became something of a folk hero today after his awesome, Jerry Maguire–like farewell letter to clients made the rounds.

"I was in this game for the money. The low hanging fruit, i.e. idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale, and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking. These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the Aristocracy, only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America."


He went on to slam Congress for not reining in predatory lending practices, suggested George Soros start a new form of government, "that truly represents the
common man’s interest" and which would, he hopes, legalize marijuana.

It gets you high, it makes you laugh, it does not produce a hangover. Unlike alcohol, it does not result in bar fights or wife beating. So, why is this innocuous plant illegal? Is it a gateway drug? No, that would be alcohol, which is so heavily advertised in this country. My only conclusion as to why it is illegal, is that Corporate America, which owns Congress, would rather sell you Paxil, Zoloft, Xanax and other additive drugs, than allow you to grow a plant in your home without some of the profits going into their coffers.

You can read the whole thing here. Then "throw away the Blackberry and enjoy life." Or at least the weekend.

Friday, October 17, 2008

What next? ... rovian nightmare or shrewd political manipulation?

Trader Drove Up Price of McCain ‘Stock’ in Online Market
By Josh Rogin, CQ Staff

An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that a single investor’s purchases prompted “unusual” price swings that significantly boosted the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president.

Over the past several weeks, the investor has pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into one of Intrade’s predictive markets for the presidential election, the company said, resulting in repeated monetary losses through a strategy that belies any financial motive.

“The trading that caused the unusual price movements and discrepancies was principally due to a single ‘institutional’ member on Intrade,” said the company’s chief executive, John Delaney, in a statement released Thursday. “We have been in contact with the firm on a number of occasions. I have spoken to those involved personally.”

After an extensive investigation into the suspicious trading patterns, Intrade found no wrongdoing or violation of its exchange rules, the company said.

Citing privacy policies, Delaney would not elaborate on who the investor was or whether or not that investor was affiliated in any way with a political campaign.

According to Delaney, this investor, who boosted the McCain prediction significantly over the market value and above the levels of competing predictive-market Web sites, was using the Intrade market to protect other positions and hedge other investments.
What did the Market say this week? ... Crash + 1 week

After a whole week of trading during which time, some quite astounding swings were seen, the market is closing about where it reached las Friday ... not where it closed we are up substantially from there, but about where the bounce off the bottom reached last Friday. This, in spite of dear Warren trying his level best to boost it by publicly declaring he is buying for his personal portfolio. They did run it up based on that this morning, but the sellers stepped in and sold that rally as they have been doing for weeks and it is a couple of months now ...

What does all that mean? The jury is still out. This week traded pretty much inside of the range of last week and the tech sector made a slight new low yesterday. They may be able to lead it up next week, now. It has become too much fun for the street to run it back and forth rather than go anywhere in the brave new world where volatility of, well, almost anything is king.
Da Man does it again ... he's not wrong yet?

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -20.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.50. Stocks continue to move toward a lower open despite encouraging comments from revered investor Warren Buffett. He stated in a New York Times article he is buying U.S. stocks for his personal portfolio. His rule for buying is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

Let's see what that does to the rally monkey today?


Here is the article as it appeared in the NY Times

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

The only positive thing ths Market can say for itself today ... the gaps got filled

This was supposed to be the day the sell-offs ended and the big C-wave rally began ... when the market let everyone know it was ok after last weeks bashing ... when the participants traded as if the supports from international governments were at least appreciated and had a chance of working ... when fear was vanquished for another day ...

They traded respectfully ... they traded, oh so carefully ... they tried their damnedest to land the ship without a crash ... the buyers came in on the dips and tried to buy ... the sellers waited until the little rallies had run their course ... the Nasdaq tried to lead them all to higher ground,

BUT

when the Nasdaq could not hold at a 62% retracement in the afternoon, everyone knes it was in trouble and that late day sell-off that looked oh so much like last weeks afternoons, again became a reality.

And, now, in the early evening the last gap, the big one in the S&P, has been filled. Will that be enough tomorrow?

The Asians and the Europeans will decide whether they have sold the euphoria resulting from the Big Deals, enough.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Can you say Melt Up ... Dow Jones up 1620 at this moment from Friday's low

I wonder how far this will go before profit taking and the return of the aggressive sellers takes it down again? In this state, the market speaks pretty clearly as noted somewhere below about Friday's reversal and gold ditching, the rally is not surprising ... the extent of it is and the out of control buying since 3 pm ET today definitely. At this rate GWB will be declaring Victory again tomorrow morning.

For the Reality Based Community, there is a maxim amongst traders: Volatility at the turning points. The volatility here will be dimensioned by the high of this rally and Friday's bottom. A huge range that could be traversed several times. It will then take a break of the extremes of that range to set the next direction. Either way will be HUGE ... so we are getting set-up for even more volatility. Must be a way to spend that.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

Urban, Suburban and Subterranian Survival wha' the %#$(*%& comes next?

this link can be pretty overwhelming, but I believe it is better to be just a tad prepared these days ... there is a LOT in here and this is the site where the Time Monks' work is used as a reference ... right up to date and expecting financial collapse Oct 10 +/- 3 days ... so we may already have seen what it is going to be for now, or Monday/Tuesday should about do it and Monday is special because it is a sorta/klnda holiday in the US with the markets open but Columbus Day as a holiday and only half the typical participation ...

Urban Survival - George Ure's site


Good Luck!

my take: the big bounce at the end of the day, Friday and the large sell-off in gold indicated that a short-term bottom may be in. It ain't over, but it might be having a pause giving us a decent warning to get our houses in order, like nature usually does.
Long Detailed Background Post from Larry Levin MSM pet pit trader

First paragraph vital for everyone, those who find too much information in the rest, spit it out.

People ask me all the time when this will end. The problem is that the healing cannot even begin, until home prices stop falling. At the moment, house prices are still going down, which must happen. House prices have to go down to the point where people can truly afford them, without all of the Mickey Mouse financing games/scams. And since incomes haven't gone up in the last eight years, we can presume that housing prices shouldn't have gone up either. How much more do houses have to fall before they are back to where they were 8 years ago? The data I have seen suggest an additional 20%, which means we're only about half way through the decline.

I am also asked if the massive amounts of money being pumped into the system will create inflation. The answer is yes, most likely. Currently the markets are suffering incredible asset deflation and if the Fed can withdraw this extra liquidity, it may be able to avert run-away inflation.

The concern today is that the Fed has nearly doubled the size of its balance sheet in the past few weeks. The Oct. 3 issue of Grant's Interest Rate Observer describes:

After a flat-footed start, [the Fed] had shown its ability to degrade its balance sheet by selling off its Treasuries and acquiring dubious mortgages. But it had not really put its back into dollar debasement. The sum total of its earning assets, i.e., Reserve Bank credit, was rising at year-over-year rates of just 3% to 4%. Where was the push to print up enough dollar bills to smother the debt crisis of 2007-8 - assuming the problem was susceptible to smothering through money printing?

Mystery solved: Reserve Bank credit is suddenly flying. It surged by $203.6 billion, to $1.135 trillion, in the banking week ended Sept. 24. And if Merrill Lynch's guess is on the mark, it has soared to $1.730 trillion in only the past few days, a near doubling since May 2007, when the latent crisis became manifest.

As Helicopter-Ben Bernanke said in November 2002 - The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. Of course he went on to say that the Fed could easily avoid a Japanese style deflationary spiral by throwing those freshly minted dollars from a helicopter.

The data above show that the U.S. dollar is getting debased on an unprecedented scale. The printing presses are running overtime and do not come without a price - eventual inflation.

Have you ever picked up a sea shell and put it to your ear to "hear the ocean?" Today you can put a dollar bill to your ear - and hear the Treasury running out of ink!
Overheard in an alley ... well actually (blush) a baseball game chat

Rob Neyer is a red-flanneled shirt nerd from the Pacific northwest who is one of the best baseball commentators going .... and someone made a comment about The Current Situation

Jim (Boston): Subprime mortgage mess . . . Ill-advised loans to non-credit-worthy buyers? Or greedy, corrupt mortgage brokers?

ROB NEYER: Both have been vastly overstated by people looking to score cheap political points. The fundamental problem is that Americans, for many years, have been convinced -- by both political parties, not to mention financial institutions -- that debt doesn't matter, nor does intrinsic value. Except eventually, both do. And now we're all going to pay for it, even those of us who don't have any debt.I don't know who's got the game tomorrow, but I'll be back Sunday. Until then, don't forget: If you sleep on the floor, you never have to worry about falling out of bed.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Introducing Tim and going further into the apocalypse

I think the thing to do is to get all of you as co-participants in this blog, that way we can combine our explorations for mutual edification without sending around a bunch of emails that inevitably get lost. For that to work people will need a gmail account which is free and I will invite those of you who don't already have one in due time. But now, I am going to try something original for me ...

Tim Kent paid me a visit today ... he is a long-time friend and companion on this journey and for Tim and I the journey has a kind of Castenada flavour although we seldom refer to that ... he would not know that I think it is more of a Fifth Business kind of trip, but I digress ... the common thread at this point seems to be 2012 and it seems a whole lot closer or more realistic than it did only a couple of weeks ago. We were watching the S&P futures market conclude trading for this tumultuous week Friday afternoon in the last 40 minutes as "they" took it up 900 Dow points in 35 minutes and down 500 in 6 minutes to about where it closed the previous day, so not much in the way of news stories will come out of that effort ... and what does that have to do with the price of cheese or introducing Tim. Tim has read most of the books the rest of you collectively have read, but unlike the rest of us, he remembers the stories in quite precise detail and can tell them splendidly, so if you want to know what really happened in the 4th Dune book, ask Tim and in so doing you will find out what the whole series is about. How's that for an introduction? He also mentioned the "Time Monks" ... and I wanted to remember to slip him the link to Gerald O'Donnell l's site, particularly the Matrix Paper which also gets you into the site. What Tim and I were discussing was the predictions by the Time Monks for the 7th and the 15th and I was referring to the fact that Mr. O'Donnell while accurate in most of WHAT happened is often off about WHEN ... I think this is due to the fact that wrinkles in space-time are detectable to psychic processes and the scientific regimes that measure such, maybe ahead of the realities that represent the "full blowing" of these wrinkles ... whilst Tim was here Rod called to say that he is feeling quite (something positive) at this point, as am I. The world is definitely on a change ... the transformational apocalypse signalled by Pinchbeck, McKenna et al is happening before our senses and so far it is more promising than frightening ... jolly good I say!

Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Fleecing the Sheeple will never be a "for Dummies" book

If this market was being traded by surgeons it could not be more precise in what it is doing ... yesterday the huge downmove that washed out the last hopes of the public that the bailout would save us, was followed by a fantastic upswing that made it close only - 368 Dow ... the Europeans met and frigged with their systems ... The Federal Reserve opened a credit window for short term cash - NO LIMIT to amounts ... Wall Street methodically sells the market down all day, carefully and precisely into S&P 1000.00 (999.50 exactly) ... now, with unlimited paper money available to business (not home-owners) and a perfect price to hold at, the big players can buy, buy, buy, mopping up the trash the fearful sheep throw away after headlines that will be even more extreme tonight as the Dow closes - 508 .... here is a quote about Fed actions:

The Fed created a Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), which will provide a liquidity backstop for the strained commercial paper market. The Fed will purchase three-month unsecured and asset-backed commercial paper from eligible issuers. The Fed did not give a dollar amount on size of the CPFF. The commercial paper market, which banks and U.S. corporations rely on for short-term borrowing, has been under pressure as investors flocked to the safety of Treasuries and away from money market funds.

Sunday, October 5, 2008

Whence Freedom? nothing left to lose. Bobby MacGhee

As world changes accelerate and the prior certainty that humans had about knowing what to do next, yields to the wisdom of insecurity, change and ultimately emptiness ...

... some respond in terror or at least anxiety gnaws away at the unconsidered assumptions that supported what they thought of as "their lives" ... now susceptible to manipulation from the fearmongers ...

... others are finding that the fluidity and uncertainty our times have brought us, opens a doorway to a greater freedom for imagination and creativity ...

... who decides which attitude we adopt?
A Memorable Fancy or a possible experiment?

Assumptions:
  • that there is a "time" when changes become "current" (like several inventors bringing forward similar inventions) ...

  • in our time the conventional right/left dichotomy has failed and become toxic, but won't go away ...

  • that the most distortion comes when humans believe that there is a RIGHT way to perceive, believe etc. and that this behaviour does not lie exclusively on either side of the "fence"
Proposal:
  • begin to communicate broadly via comments, forums etc. on the web a different meme
    re-frame in widely read blogs and maybe letters to editors the right/left dichotomy as right(correct) vs rainbow of views/choices

  • allow proclamation of "I'm not sure" as a positive in our times and cast the contrary as relatively dangerous

  • running critique of extreme postions on both sides, so that you resist attempts to label you in one or other camp

  • thus beginning a campaign to reclaim "the middle" which I fear is what has been lost in the wake of the neo-con era

  • possible to broaden the first scattering of the seed by enlisting those who are already of like mind to participate by invitation/persuasion
Hypothesis:
  • if it is "time" for such a view change, then a little seeding like the above would gather momentum and when you notice
Is something like this truly a possibility or am I deluded once again?

This idea is NOT copyrighted and anyone is welcome to give it a whirl ... the more the merry goes round.
Watching the World Change from the perspective of approaching 2012

To return to Blog and current post, click here.

This is really the opening article of this blog, but could be lost as the roll unfolds .... we are losing the past as the pace of change accelerates ... we can't hold the past in focus for ourselves as the family, cultural and even racial memories shimmer and fade ...

By the same token, we are also losing the future because the conditions and ingredients that we may have for the composing of our individual, social and cultural futures are no longer as certain as we may have once imagined ...

THIS is the psychic apocalypse. The end of the world, yes, but not the end of the world as we have feared, perhaps. Oh yes, it may well turn out to be that as well, especially if we panic and start running around every which way trying to grab what we can before it's too late.

Some of us are imagining a different progression ... a changing landscape that allows us to be renewed as our old imaginary shells can no longer be maintained ... or contain the implications of new revelations. In the 70's Steven Gaskin suggested that psychedelics were a sheep-dip for the ego. Washed and cleansed of some of the aberations and excesses, you returned ... Ken Keysey said we stood with our shells at our feet and had to reconcile ourselves to our shells or our shells to ourselves and ended up building better shells than the old Glow-Coat varieties. I am suggesting that this is now happening without the ingestion of substances and everyone is sharing the trip, so Mr. Bush looks like he's been up all night and is no longer declaring victory this morning.

Everybody knows ... that ... nobody knows ... anymore .... what is happening or going to happen next.

And Mr. McCain is extremely uncomfortable with it being this way just now. Even though Mr. Obama is surrounded by a crowd of people, advisors and handlers who are not all that different than those on the other side ... he, himself, still manages to appear relatively calm in the centre of his storm and THAT is starting to register ... those of us who have had some training in sitting down, shutting up and doing nothing for a gosh darned minute should be able to relate and may be called upon to help with nothing more or less than being ok to not know just yet ...

To read the current post click on this
Canadians returning to their Political Roots throw the bastards out tradition

Just when we were crumbling under the prospect of a Harper election steal ... someone is pouring some considerable dollars into a guerilla move ... this link headed my Google Mail page which takes planning and poise and consolidates and furthers something Canadians used to do. Vote against the government when you don't like them, quietly and effectively overturning the political tables, buying time from the future ...

http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/

This was what the heading looked like ... on top of the page, not as a side ad

Stop Stephen Harper - www.voteforenvironment.ca/ - Care about the environment? Vote for change in this election

I am so pleased to see this being orchestrated in this very effective way.

Friday, October 3, 2008

In a week of surprises the Wall Street Journal surprisingly gets a lot of it right

or at least it corresponds well to my experience of it ...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122300786229301597.html

The analysis of the waning Bush days is bang on and hopefully this will count somewhere ... and heaven help us if they find a way to harness and use Ms. Palin effectively because she really does have the star sparkle that has completely vanished from post modern politics. Mr. Obama has it when he is giving a speech, at other times, not so much. It must be, for him, that black church rhythm seeping through and the law school grad guy who otherwise is there is quite flat.
Volatility Trading in the post-value era

Like da man said, "What am I going to pay for this with? Volatility?"
Wall Street Wins or who is manipulating whom?

[BRIEFING.COM] A knee-jerk selling effort has followed the announcement that the House of Representatives approved the ammended asset purchase plan. That reaction erased more than 300 points from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow actually fell all the way into the red, though only for a moment. It quickly pulled back into positive ground.

The concerted selling effort follows the build up that led up to the House vote. That build up had each of the major indices sporting gains of at least 3.0%.

Yesterday they took the market down, so they could buy it up today going into that vote. They sold the results of the vote just as they had planned to do on Monday, regardless of the outcome. Maybe Sarah didn't have it mixed up last night when she said that, "Folks on wall street should not have to worry about what happens on main street".
What a novel idea Sticking to what one's core business is

Shares of insurance giant AIG (AIG 4.76, +0.76) are trading higher after the company announced plans to sell assets and focus efforts on its core property and casualty insurance businesses. The restructuring efforts and asset sales will help raise capital to protect against future losses and repay the $85 billion credit line extended by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, with the company's image tainted, it risks losing some of its best assets as competitors chase customers. Focusing on core assets, like its property and casualty business, will help protect the firm going forward.

Wouldn't this be a great new trend ... all of the financial octopi become cyclops again. They are certainly being punished for trying to control everything these days. Seems that it was a decade or so ago that vertical vs horizontal integration was being debated